Cost-Effectiveness of Rheumatic Heart Disease Echocardiographic Screening in Brazil: Data from the PROVAR+ Study: Cost-effectiveness of RHD screening in Brazil.

Introduction: In recent years, new technologies - noticeably ultra-portable echocardiographic machines - have emerged, allowing for Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) early diagnosis. We aimed to perform a cost-utility analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of RHD screening with handheld devices in the Brazilian context. Methods: A Markov model was created to assess the cost-effectiveness of one-time screening for RHD in a hypothetical cohort of 11-year-old socioeconomically disadvantaged children, comparing the intervention to standard care using a public perspective and a 30-year time horizon. The model consisted of 13 states: No RHD, Undiagnosed Asymptomatic Borderline RHD, Diagnosed Asymptomatic Borderline RHD, Untreated Asymptomatic Definite RHD, Treated Asymptomatic Definite RHD, Untreated Mild Clinical RHD, Treated Mild Clinical RHD, Untreated Severe Clinical RHD, Treated Severe Clinical RHD, Surgery, Post-Surgery and Death. The initial distribution of the population over the different states was derived from primary echo screening data. Costs of the different states were derived from the Brazilian public health system database. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from published studies. A discount rate of 3%/year was used. A cost-effectiveness threshold of $25,949.85 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted is used in concordance with the 3x GDP per capita threshold in 2015. Results: RHD echo screening is cost-effective with an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of $10,148.38 per DALY averted. Probabilistic modelling shows that the intervention could be considered cost-effective in 70% of the iterations. Conclusion: Screening for RHD with hand held echocardiographic machines in 11-year-old children in the target population is cost-effective in the Brazilian context. Highlights: A cost-effectiveness analysis showed that Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) echocardiographic screening utilizing handheld devices, performed by non-physicians with remote interpretation by telemedicine is cost-effective in a 30-year time horizon in Brazil.The model included primary data from the first large-scale RHD screening program in Brazilian underserved populations and costs from the Unified Health System (SUS), and suggests that the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of the intervention is considerably below the acceptable threshold for Brazil, even after a detailed sensitivity analysis.Considering the high prevalence of subclinical RHD in Brazil, and the significant economic burden posed by advanced disease, these data are important for the formulation of public policies and surveillance approaches.Cost-saving strategies first implemented in Brazil by the PROVAR study, such as task-shifting to non-physicians, computer-based training, routine use of affordable devices and telemedicine for remote diagnosis may help planning RHD control programs in endemic areas worldwide.

Adult and Paediatric Cardiac Intervention in Timor-Leste: Disease Burden, Demographics and Clinical Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The East Timor Hearts Fund (ETHF) is a charitable organisation of Australian cardiologists providing outreach screening in Timor-Leste. For patients requiring intervention, ETHF arranges logistics, procedures, and postoperative care. The aim of this project is to evaluate outcomes of patients requiring intervention. METHODS: The ETHF database of all patients was utilised to identify patients with disease warranting surgical or percutaneous intervention. Both patients who underwent intervention and those who did not proceed to intervention were included in this study. Patients who had intervention arranged by other organisations but have then had follow-up with ETHF were also included. Overall demographics and pre and postoperative factors were assessed, with sub-group analysis of adult and paediatric patients to identify any differences in care. RESULTS: Of 221 patients requiring intervention, 101 patients underwent intervention, receiving 22 different operations or procedures. Patients were predominantly young (median age 17.5 years) and female (64.7%), with rheumatic heart disease (63.8%). Twenty-four (24) (33.3%) women aged 15-45 years old with cardiac disease warranting intervention were documented as pregnant or breastfeeding at time of clinic assessment. Of patients who did not proceed to intervention, adults were more likely to be lost to follow-up (42.4% vs 18.5%) while paediatric patients were more likely to experience progression of disease (18.5% vs 7.5%, p=0.005). Median waitlist time was 5 months, with no significant difference between adults and children, correlating with a preoperative mortality rate of 5.4%. For patients who underwent intervention, post-procedure mortality was extremely low (0.9%) and attendance of at least one post-procedure review was excellent (99.0%). Eleven (11) (10.9%) patients have required repeat intervention, with no difference in rates between adult and paediatric patients. Length of follow-up extends up to 20 years for some patients. CONCLUSION: The Timor-Leste interventional cohort was predominantly a young female population with rheumatic and congenital cardiac disease. There were also high rates of pregnancy amongst female patients with severe cardiac disease. Delayed access to intervention may result in preoperative adverse events and mortality, and is a key target for improvement. Patients who undergo intervention have very low post-procedural mortality, good adherence to early medical follow-up and good long-term outcomes.

Rheumatic Fever: A Disease without Color / Febre Reumática: Uma Doença sem Cor

Abstract Background: Brazil has approximately 30.000 cases of Acute Rheumatic Fever (ARF) annually. A third of cardiovascular surgeries performed in the country are due to the sequelae of rheumatic heart disease (RHD), which is an important public health problem. Objectives: to analyze the historical series of mortality rates and disease costs, projecting future trends to offer new data that may justify the need to implement a public health program for RF. Methods: we performed a cross-sectional study with a time series analysis based on data from the Hospital Information System of Brazil from 1998 to 2016. Simple linear regression models and Holt's Exponential Smoothing Method were used to model the behavior of the series and to do forecasts. The results of the tests with a value of p < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: each year, the number of deaths due to RHD increased by an average of 16.94 units and the mortality rate from ARF increased by 215%. There was a 264% increase in hospitalization expenses for RHD and RHD mortality rates increased 42.5% (p-value < 0.05). The estimated mortality rates for ARF and RHD were, respectively, 2.68 and 8.53 for 2019. The estimated cost for RHD in 2019 was US$ 26.715.897,70. Conclusions: according to the Brazilian reality, the 1-year RHD expenses would be sufficient for secondary prophylaxis (considering a Benzatin Penicillin G dose every 3 weeks) in 22.574 people for 10 years. This study corroborates the need for public health policies aimed at RHD.

Resumo Fundamento: O Brasil tem aproximadamente 30.000 casos de febre reumática aguda (FRA) por ano. Um terço das cirurgias cardiovasculares realizadas no país se deve às sequelas da doença reumática cardíaca (DRC), a qual é um importante problema de saúde pública. Objetivos: Analisar as séries históricas de taxas de mortalidade e custos das doenças, projetando tendências futuras para oferecer novos dados que possam justificar a necessidade de implementação de um programa de saúde pública para FR. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo transversal com análise de séries temporais a partir de dados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Brasil, de 1998 a 2016. Modelos de regressão linear simples e o método de suavização exponencial de Holt foram utilizados para modelar o comportamento das séries e fazer previsões. Os resultados dos testes com um valor de p <0,05 foram considerados estatisticamente significantes. Resultados: A cada ano, o número de mortes por DRC aumentou em média 16,94 unidades, e a taxa de mortalidade por FRA aumentou em 215%. Houve um aumento de 264% nas despesas de hospitalização por DRC, e as taxas de mortalidade por DRC aumentaram 42,5% (p-valor < 0,05). As taxas de mortalidade estimadas para FRA e DRC foram, respectivamente, 2,68 e 8,53 para 2019. O custo estimado para a DRC em 2019 foi de US$ 26.715.897,70. Conclusões: De acordo com a realidade brasileira, o gasto relativo a 1 ano de DRC seria suficiente para a profilaxia secundária (considerando uma dose de penicilina G benzatina a cada 3 semanas) em 22.574 pessoas por 10 anos. Este estudo corrobora a necessidade de políticas públicas de saúde direcionadas à DRC.

Rheumatic Fever: A Disease without Color.

BACKGROUND: Brazil has approximately 30.000 cases of Acute Rheumatic Fever (ARF) annually. A third of cardiovascular surgeries performed in the country are due to the sequelae of rheumatic heart disease (RHD), which is an important public health problem. OBJECTIVES: to analyze the historical series of mortality rates and disease costs, projecting future trends to offer new data that may justify the need to implement a public health program for RF. METHODS: we performed a cross-sectional study with a time series analysis based on data from the Hospital Information System of Brazil from 1998 to 2016. Simple linear regression models and Holt's Exponential Smoothing Method were used to model the behavior of the series and to do forecasts. The results of the tests with a value of p < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: each year, the number of deaths due to RHD increased by an average of 16.94 units and the mortality rate from ARF increased by 215%. There was a 264% increase in hospitalization expenses for RHD and RHD mortality rates increased 42.5% (p-value < 0.05). The estimated mortality rates for ARF and RHD were, respectively, 2.68 and 8.53 for 2019. The estimated cost for RHD in 2019 was US$ 26.715.897,70. CONCLUSIONS: according to the Brazilian reality, the 1-year RHD expenses would be sufficient for secondary prophylaxis (considering a Benzatin Penicillin G dose every 3 weeks) in 22.574 people for 10 years. This study corroborates the need for public health policies aimed at RHD.

Echocardiography in Indigenous Populations and Resource Poor Settings.

The majority of global cardiovascular disease burden occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and indigenous populations. Although common diseases, such as ischaemic heart disease, cause significant burden, there are also neglected diseases. Forgotten by many, these diseases-including rheumatic heart disease, endomyocardial fibrosis and Chagas cardiomyopathy-continue to take a tremendous toll on a large proportion of the world's population. Whilst the technology of echocardiography continues to evolve in many high-income countries, low resource countries are working out how to make this vital tool available and affordable for the most remote and poorest populations. This paper aims to highlight the neglected cardiovascular diseases and their echocardiographic features. It also highlights the latest research in relation to portable echocardiography, task shifting and disease screening. The authors make recommendations in relation to future directions, including making echocardiography an affordable and accessible tool for all.

Workforce Cost Model for Expanding Congenital and Rheumatic Heart Disease Services in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the number one global killer, with over three quarters of these deaths arising from the populations of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Addressing the burden of cardiovascular disease in LMICs must include medical and surgical services for these patients. In this article, we model the needs and costs to scale up the cardiac provider workforce in Kenya, which can be adapted to other LMICs based on country-specific workforce hours and workforce salaries. METHODS: Using published epidemiological reports from sub-Saharan Africa, we structured the model based on the expected disease burden of congenital and rheumatic disease in a simulated 1,000-person population. Services modeled include clinic visits, echocardiograms, diagnostic cardiac catheterizations, interventional catheterizations, and heart surgery. Costs were modeled based on Kenyan public sector salaries. After scaling the model, we created a sensitivity analysis of change in service duration and salaries. RESULTS: Based on a 1,000-person Kenyan population, we estimate that 2.5 heart surgeries will be needed every year, with a corresponding annual workforce cost of US$526. Including accompanying services of clinic visits, echocardiograms, and both diagnostic and interventional cardiac catheterizations, the total annual workforce cost is US$899. Based on estimated productive hours for public sector workforce, 196 full-time equivalent cardiac surgeons will be needed for the entire population of Kenya (2017 figure). CONCLUSIONS: We present a model for appropriate cardiovascular service staffing based on disease burden and workforce costs. This model can be scaled up as needed to plan for local capacity building.

Neglecting the neglected: the objective evidence of underfunding in rheumatic heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Despite the substantial global burden of disease, rheumatic heart disease research receives little funding globally. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study and funding from the G-FINDER database, we propose a novel logarithmic disability neglect index (DNI) to describe disease burden using disability-adjusted life years relative to funding for 16 major tropical diseases. RESULTS: Across a range of diseases, rheumatic heart disease received the least funding relative to disease burden (DNI=3.83). Other diseases facing similar underfunding include cysticercosis (DNI=2.71) and soil-transmitted helminths (DNI=2.41). CONCLUSIONS: Rheumatic heart disease remains severely underfunded relative to disease burden.

Public Health Costs for Northern Territory and South Australian Cardiac Surgery Patients.

BACKGROUND: The cost of performing cardiac surgery in the public health system in Australia is unclear. This paper analyses the cost of cardiac surgery performed at Flinders Medical Centre (FMC), South Australia, comparing cost by procedure, rheumatic valvular heart disease status, Aboriginality and location. METHODS: This study is a retrospective, population-based analysis of cardiac surgery data held in the Cardiac Surgery Registry cross-referenced to cost data provided by the FMC Department of Finance and Patient Travel, Accommodation and Transport Services at the Royal Darwin Hospital. Seven hundred ninety-five (795) patients who underwent cardiac surgery at FMC from 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2016 were included. RESULTS: Across all procedures, Northern Territory (NT) Aboriginal patients had a mean total cost of $78,506 which was $24,113 more than NT non-Aboriginal, $28,443 more than South Australian (SA) Aboriginal and $22,955 more than SA non-Aboriginal patients. The total cost of a patient undergoing a repeat sternotomy (reoperative procedure) was found to be significantly higher than a primary procedure ($85,797 versus $59,097). In patients undergoing valve surgery procedures, those identified with rheumatic heart disease had a higher mean total cost than those without (a difference of $25,094). Significantly, the rheumatic patient group showed a higher proportion of reoperative procedures (19% versus 5%). CONCLUSIONS: The cost of treating NT Aboriginal cardiac surgical patients remotely has a significant financial impact upon the health care delivery system, as does the impact of rheumatic heart disease. This study found that the cost for the NT Aboriginal patient group was substantially higher than the NT non-Aboriginal, SA Aboriginal and SA non-Aboriginal patient groups. The additional cost to family and dislocation of social structures is not able to be calculated, but would also clearly weigh heavily on both patient groups. These findings suggest that future health funding models should recognise Aboriginality, remoteness and rheumatic heart disease.

Ten-year clinical experience of humanitarian cardiothoracic surgery in Rwanda: Building a platform for ultimate sustainability in a resource-limited setting.

OBJECTIVE: Despite its near complete eradication in resource-rich countries, rheumatic heart disease remains the most common acquired cardiovascular disease in sub-Saharan Africa. With a ratio of physicians/population of 1 per 10,500, including only 4 cardiologists for a population of 11.4 million, Rwanda represents a resource-limited setting lacking the local capacity to detect and treat early cases of strep throat and perform lifesaving operations for advanced rheumatic heart disease. Humanitarian surgical outreach in this region can improve the delivery of cardiovascular care by providing sustainability through mentorship, medical expertise, training, and knowledge transfer, and ultimately the creation of a cardiac center. METHODS: We describe the experience of consecutive annual visits to Rwanda since 2008 and report the outcomes of a collaborative approach to enable sustainable cardiac surgery in the region. The Ferrans and Powers Quality of Life Index tool's Cardiac Version (http://www.uic.edu/orgs/qli/) was administered to assess the postoperative quality of life. RESULTS: Ten visits have been completed, performing 149 open procedures, including 200 valve implantations, New York Heart Association class III or IV, with 4.7% 30-day mortality. All procedures were performed with the participation of local Rwandan personnel, expatriate physicians, nurses, residents, and support staff. Early complications included cerebrovascular accident (n = 4), hemorrhage requiring reoperation (n = 6), and death (n = 7). Quality of life was assessed to further understand challenges encountered after cardiac surgery in this resource-limited setting. Four major domains were considered: health and functioning, social and economic, psychologic/spiritual, and family. The mean total quality of life index was 20.79 ± 4.07 on a scale from 0 to 30, for which higher scores indicated higher quality of life. Women had significantly lower "social and economic" subscores (16.81 ± 4.17) than men (18.64 ± 4.10) (P < .05). Patients who reported receiving their follow-up care in rural health centers also had significantly lower "social and economic" subscores (15.67 ± 3.81) when compared with those receiving follow-up care in urban health facilities (18.28 ± 4.16) (P < .005). Value afforded to family and psychologic factors remained high among all groups. Major postsurgical challenges faced included barriers to follow-up and systemic anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: This report represents the first account of a long-term humanitarian effort to develop sustainability in cardiac surgery in a resource-limited setting, Rwanda. With the use of volunteer teams to deliver care, transfer knowledge, and mentor local personnel, the results demonstrate superior outcomes and favorable indices of quality of life. The credibility gained over a decade of effort has created the opportunity for a partnership with Rwanda to establish a dedicated center of cardiac care to assist in mitigating the burden of cardiovascular disease throughout sub-Saharan Africa.

Standard echocardiography versus handheld echocardiography for the detection of subclinical rheumatic heart disease: protocol for a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a preventable and treatable chronic condition which persists in many developing countries largely affecting impoverished populations. Handheld echocardiography presents an opportunity to address the need for more cost-effective methods of diagnosing RHD in developing countries, where the disease continues to carry high rates of morbidity and mortality. Preliminary studies have demonstrated moderate sensitivity as well as high specificity and diagnostic odds for detecting RHD in asymptomatic patients. We describe a protocol for a systematic review on the diagnostic performance of handheld echocardiography compared to standard echocardiography using the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria for diagnosing subclinical RHD. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and EBSCOhost as well as reference lists and citations of relevant articles will be searched from 2012 to date using a predefined strategy incorporating a combination of Medical Subject Heading terms and keywords. The methodological validity and quality of studies deemed eligible for inclusion will be assessed against review specific Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 criteria and information on metrics of diagnostic accuracy and demographics extracted. Forest plots of sensitivity and specificity as well as scatter plots in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) space will be used to investigate heterogeneity. If possible, a meta-analysis will be conducted to produce summary results of sensitivity and specificity using the Hierarchical Summary ROC method. In addition, a sensitivity analysis will be conducted to investigate the effect of studies with a high risk of bias. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required for this systematic review of previously published literature. The planned review will provide a summary of the diagnostic accuracy of handheld echocardiography. Results may feed into evidence-based guidelines and should the findings of this review warrant a change in clinical practice, a summary report will be disseminated among leading clinicians and healthcare professionals in the field. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016051261.

Echocardiographic Screening for Rheumatic Heart Disease in Indigenous Australian Children: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a leading cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in children and young adults in disadvantaged populations. The emergence of echocardiographic screening provides the opportunity for early disease detection and intervention. Using our own multistate model of RHD progression derived from Australian RHD register data, we performed a cost-utility analysis of echocardiographic screening in indigenous Australian children, with the dual aims of informing policy decisions in Australia and providing a model that could be adapted in other countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: We simulated the outcomes of 2 screening strategies, assuming that RHD could be detected 1, 2, or 3 years earlier by screening. Outcomes included reductions in heart failure, surgery, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years, and corresponding costs. Only a strategy of screening all indigenous 5- to 12-year-olds in half of their communities in alternate years was found to be cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio less than AU$50 000 per disability-adjusted life-year averted), assuming that RHD can be detected at least 2 years earlier by screening; however, this result was sensitive to a number of assumptions. Additional modeling of improved adherence to secondary prophylaxis alone resulted in dramatic reductions in heart failure, surgery, and death; these outcomes improved even further when combined with screening. CONCLUSIONS: Echocardiographic screening for RHD is cost-effective in our context, assuming that RHD can be detected ≥2 years earlier by screening. Our model can be adapted to any other setting but will require local data or acceptable assumptions for model parameters.

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool to Guide the Prioritization of Interventions for Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease Control in African Nations.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) prevalence and mortality rates remain especially high in many parts of Africa. While effective prevention and treatment exist, coverage rates of the various interventions are low. Little is known about the comparative cost-effectiveness of different RHD interventions in limited resource settings. We developed an economic evaluation tool to assist ministries of health in allocating resources and planning RHD control programs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We constructed a Markov model of the natural history of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and RHD, taking transition probabilities and intervention effectiveness data from previously published studies and expert opinion. Our model estimates the incremental cost-effectiveness of scaling up coverage of primary prevention (PP), secondary prevention (SP) and heart valve surgery (VS) interventions for RHD. We take a healthcare system perspective on costs and measure outcomes as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), discounting both at 3%. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses are also built into the modeling tool. We illustrate the use of this model in a hypothetical low-income African country, drawing on available disease burden and cost data. We found that, in our hypothetical country, PP would be cost saving and SP would be very cost-effective. International referral for VS (e.g., to a country like India that has existing surgical capacity) would be cost-effective, but building in-country VS services would not be cost-effective at typical low-income country thresholds. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our cost-effectiveness analysis tool is designed to inform priorities for ARF/RHD control programs in Africa at the national or subnational level. In contrast to previous literature, our preliminary findings suggest PP could be the most efficient and cheapest approach in poor countries. We provide our model for public use in the form of a Supplementary File. Our research has immediate policy relevance and calls for renewed efforts to scale up RHD prevention.

Echocardiographic prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in Brazilian schoolchildren: Data from the PROVAR study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) burden are needed to justify improved integration of RHD prevention and screening into the public health systems, but data from Latin America are still sparse. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of RHD among socioeconomically disadvantaged youth (5-18years) in Brazil and examine risk factors for the disease. METHODS: The PROVAR program utilizes non-expert screeners, telemedicine, and handheld and standard portable echocardiography to conduct echocardiographic screening in socioeconomically disadvantaged schools in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Cardiologists in the US and Brazil provide expert interpretation according to the 2012 World Heart Federation Guidelines. Here we report prevalence data from the first 14months of screening, and examine risk factors for RHD. RESULTS: 5996 students were screened across 21 schools. Median age was 11.9 [9.0/15.0] years, 59% females. RHD prevalence was 42/1000 (n=251): 37/1000 borderline (n=221) and 5/1000 definite (n=30). Pathologic mitral regurgitation was observed in 203 (80.9%), pathologic aortic regurgitation in 38 (15.1%), and mixed mitral/aortic valve disease in 10 (4.0%) children. Older children had higher prevalence (50/1000 vs. 28/1000, p<0.001), but no difference was observed between northern (lower resourced) and central areas (34/1000 vs. 44/1000, p=0.31). Females had higher prevalence (48/1000 vs. 35/1000, p=0.016). Age (OR=1.15, 95% CI:1.10-1.21, p<0.001) was the only variable independently associated with RHD findings. CONCLUSIONS: RHD continues to be an important and under recognized condition among socioeconomically disadvantaged Brazilian schoolchildren. Our data adds to the compelling case for renewed investment in RHD prevention and early detection in Latin America.

Rheumatic heart disease echocardiographic screening: approaching practical and affordable solutions.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) affects at least 32.9 million people worldwide and ranks as a leading cause of death and disability in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Echocardiographic screening has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for early RHD detection, and holds potential for global RHD control. However, national screening programmes have not emerged. Major barriers to implementation include the lack of human and financial resources in LMICs. Here, we focus on recent research advances that could make echocardiographic screening more practical and affordable, including handheld echocardiography devices, simplified screening protocols and task shifting of echocardiographic screening to non-experts. Additionally, we highlight some important remaining questions before echocardiographic screening can be widely recommended, including demonstration of cost-effectiveness, assessment of the impact of screening on children and communities, and determining the importance of latent RHD. While a single strategy for echocardiographic screening in all high-prevalence areas is unlikely, we believe recent advancements are bringing the public health community closer to developing sustainable programmes for echocardiographic screening.

Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.

Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs.To develop a time series model using Box-Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai.Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030.From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04-4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05-1.19 billion) without additional government interventions.Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a program to control rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease in Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

BACKGROUND: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) persist in many low- and middle-income countries. To date, the cost-effectiveness of population-based, combined primary and secondary prevention strategies has not been assessed. In the Pinar del Rio province of Cuba, a comprehensive ARF/RHD control program was undertaken over 1986-1996. The present study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of this Cuban program. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a decision tree model based on the natural history of ARF/RHD, comparing the costs and effectiveness of the 10-year Cuban program to a "do nothing" approach. Our population of interest was the cohort of children aged 5-24 years resident in Pinar del Rio in 1986. We assessed costs and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon, and we took the healthcare system perspective on costs but did not apply a discount rate. We used epidemiologic, clinical, and direct medical cost inputs that were previously collected for publications on the Cuban program. We estimated health gains as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using standard approaches developed for the Global Burden of Disease studies. Cost-effectiveness acceptability thresholds were defined by one and three times per capita gross domestic product per DALY averted. We also conducted an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations and several scenario analyses exploring the impact of alternative assumptions about the program's effects and costs. We found that, compared to doing nothing, the Cuban program averted 5051 DALYs (1844 per 100,000 school-aged children) and saved $7,848,590 (2010 USD) despite a total program cost of $202,890 over 10 years. In the scenario analyses, the program remained cost saving when a lower level of effectiveness and a reduction in averted years of life lost were assumed. In a worst-case scenario including 20-fold higher costs, the program still had a 100% of being cost-effective and an 85% chance of being cost saving. CONCLUSIONS: A 10-year program to control ARF/RHD in Pinar del Rio, Cuba dramatically reduced morbidity and premature mortality in children and young adults and was cost saving. The results of our analysis were robust to higher program costs and more conservative assumptions about the program's effectiveness. It is possible that the program's effectiveness resulted from synergies between primary and secondary prevention strategies. The findings of this study have implications for non-communicable disease policymaking in other resource-limited settings.

Handheld echocardiography versus auscultation for detection of rheumatic heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a major public health concern in developing countries, and routine screening has the potential to improve outcomes. Standard portable echocardiography (STAND) is far more sensitive than auscultation for the detection of RHD but remains cost-prohibitive in resource-limited settings. Handheld echocardiography (HAND) is a lower-cost alternative. The purpose of this study was to assess the incremental value of HAND over auscultation to identify RHD. METHODS: RHD screening was completed for schoolchildren in Gulu, Uganda, by using STAND performed by experienced echocardiographers. Any child with mitral or aortic regurgitation or stenosis plus a randomly selected group of children with normal STAND findings underwent HAND and auscultation. STAND and HAND studies were interpreted by 6 experienced cardiologists using the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria. Sensitivity and specificity of HAND and auscultation for the detection of RHD and pathologic mitral or aortic regurgitation were calculated by using STAND as the gold standard. RESULTS: Of 4773 children who underwent screening with STAND, a subgroup of 1317 children underwent HAND and auscultation. Auscultation had uniformly poor sensitivity for the detection of RHD or valve disease. Sensitivity was significantly improved by using HAND compared with auscultation for the detection of definite RHD (97.8% vs 22.2%), borderline or definite RHD (78.4% vs 16.4%), and pathologic aortic insufficiency (81.8% vs 13.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Auscultation alone is a poor screening test for RHD. HAND significantly improves detection of RHD and may be a cost-effective screening strategy for RHD in resource-limited settings.

Echo-based screening of rheumatic heart disease in children: a cost-effectiveness Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To project the cost-effectiveness of population-based echo screening to prevent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) consequences. BACKGROUND: RHD is a leading cause of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity during adolescence and young adulthood in low- and middle-per capita income settings. Echocardiography-based screening approaches can dramatically expand the number of children identified at risk of progressive RHD. Cost-effectiveness analysis can inform public health agencies and payers about the net economic benefit of such large-scale population-based screening. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed comparing a no-screen to echo screen approach. The echo screen program was modeled as a 2-staged screen of a cohort of 11-year-old children with initial short screening performed by dedicated technicians and follow-up complete echo by cardiologists. Penicillin RHD prophylaxis was modeled to only reduce rheumatic fever recurrence-related exacerbation. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal costs (in 2010 Australian dollars) associated with each approach were estimated. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed on RHD prevalence and transition probabilities; echocardiography test characteristics; and societal level costs including supplies, transportation, and labor. RESULTS: The incremental costs and QALYs of the screen compared to no screen strategy were -$432 (95% CI = -$1357 to $575) and 0.007 (95% CI = -0.0101 to 0.0237), respectively. The joint probability that the screen was both less costly and more effective exceeded 80%. Sensitivity analyses suggested screen strategy dominance depends mostly on the probability of transitioning out of sub-clinical RHD. CONCLUSION: Two-stage echo RHD screening and secondary prophylaxis may achieve modestly improved outcomes at lower cost compared to clinical detection and deserves closer attention from health policy stakeholders.

[Changes in biochemical parameters of blood in patients with rheumatic heart failure following surgical intervention].

We analysed changes of biochemical parameters of blood in patients treated for chronic rheumatic heart problems. It was shown that biochemical parameters of blood changed within 12 days after surgical intervention; the changes were especially pronounced on days 1-3 whereas normalization occurs by days 9-12. Pathogenetically sound time periods for changes of biochemical characteristics of blood serum were established in the patients treated for chronic rheumatic heart problems. On the one hand, it will allow more accurate monitoring of development of complications in the postoperative period and on the other hand to reduce expenses by decreasing the number of unnecessary analyses.